El Salvador Final Presidential Vote - Fraud and Fear

Last night was the final vote for the President of El Salvador.   Last month's vote eliminated the bottom challengers and pushed the country to a second round of voting which culminated last night with the final election.  Campaign coverage on local television and internet was superb as had the previous night and I expected to see a clean easy election as I had in the previous one.  But the night was filled with adrenaline as it appeared ARENA had closed the gap and for brief moments was even ahead in the polls.

The final result in the preliminary ballots ended with FMLN 50.11% and ARENA with 49.89%.  Too close for any candidate to concede. All night long we watched as the political experts debated these results and how close the election turned out to be.  I have my own opinion as to why this happened, but that is for another post.  The real concern is the potential for fraud and violence that came with the results.

Even though the TSE (Tribunal Supremo Electoral) asked everyone for prudence in announcing victory or questioning the ballots; both candidates wanted to claim victory.  The local newspaper and social media began showing a number of miscalculations in the counting process.    A quick summary of how the ballots are counted will help to explain how this works.  Each ballot box is opened at the polling location, each ballot is counted and called out for all to hear.  Poll watchers count the ballots as well and can essentially pass results to their campaign headquarters before it is even released to the public.  Once the votes are counted they are certified and then sent to the TSE who then posts the results on their webpage.  Well according to ARENA, they have counted all of their votes and show they won, to support this they are showing a number of certified voting sheets from the polls that do not match the numbers on the website.  Honest mistake or fraud?  Arena is calling fraud.

Potential Fraud

The scary part is during a speech to rally the support of ARENA Norman Quijano (candidate for president) said that he had been robbed and had called the armed forces.  He stated they were ready to protect democracy and made a call for potential violence to ensure his election as president.  These phrases have shocked many of those around me saying they supported Quijano but are now scared of what he will do.

It is obvious some irregularities have been found and that the country is very divided at this moment.  The next few days will set the stage for either a new president or potential for something worse.

El Salvador Elections 2014

In the next few months the El Salvador elections will be heating up here in the country.  I was interested to see former El Salvador finance minister and World Bank managing director, Dr. Juan Jose Daboub, held a meeting in Washington D.C. to discuss what to expect. The discussion was posted on PanAmPost last week (See Here).

Essentially we have three candidates:

Salvador Sánchez Cerén, representing the current ruling party, the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN)

Norman Quijano, current mayor of San Salvador, representing the Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (ARENA)

Tony Saca, former president (2004-2009), representing the Unidad coalition.

Tony Saca has relatively no chance of winning this election and with new info regarding his previous administrations corruption issues with the Monsignor Romero Highway; So I feel the concerns are justified.  In fact his meager 15% of the vote is simply stealing votes from Quijano, which might be the whole reason he is in the election to begin because of his outage from the ARENA party.  But in a race between Ceren and Quijano the choice comes down to who will really make changes for the country.

Daboub says that there is no clear favorite but feels Quijano has a good chance of winning. His comment is a little concerning because of a recent poll showing Ceren finally gaining a two point lead over Quijano, as reported by the Prensa Graphica and reposted on Tim's El Salvador Blog (See Here).

In addition Daboub says the following about ARENA and Quijano:

Between ARENA and FMLN, Daboub said, ARENA would create a healthier environment for investment and be more likely to strengthen El Salvador’s judicial system. Governing El Salvador won’t be easy, he said, but ARENA gives him more optimism. This includes controlling the fiscal debt — almost double that of previous years — strengthening weak governmental institutions, and addressing security. Right now, he contends, innocent people must protect themselves by hiding inside their homes, while drug cartels and gangs have license to operate freely in certain areas and do whatever they want.

Interesting that Daboub is bold to call this out as to who should win, he later goes on to say what is most important is to have an individual who will work with the United States as a partner.  Having met Quijano I could see this as a potential; however in talking to some state department officials they have told me their concerns that neither candidate is likely to be a friend to United States.

What this country needs is a clear winner, no fraud and strong leadership to change things.  Quijano has shown the best potential of doing this as mayor of San Salvador.  From an investor stand point this country has grown more difficult and new laws have not been on the side of employer or investor.  Current president Mauricio Funes is not a solid FMLN party member and has been more of a moderate, but Sanchez Ceren is as far left as you can get.  In his new book "El Pais Que Quiero" he clearly defines a better democracy for El Salvador as country with strong redistribution of wealth and other socialistic ideas (Sanchez Ceren, 2012)  His ideas are popular because he spends more time in the poor regions of the country and is quick to show these photos in his book.

Elections are not the same as they are in the United States.  No nominating convention (they are chosen by party leadership), no real public debate like we see and the advertisement is about half of what we are used to.  Candidates will give away food and kiss babies.  The large turnout and voter pride will be a great post from another day.

Comments welcome.


Sanchez Ceren, S. (2012). El pais que quiero 2014:elecciones presidenciales en el salvador. (Primero ed., p. 24). Mexico : Ocean Sur.